initial
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
|
||||
# Trading Strategy Analysis Notebooks
|
||||
|
||||
This directory contains Jupyter notebooks for analyzing and visualizing trading strategies from the algorithmic trading book.
|
||||
|
||||
## Available Notebooks
|
||||
|
||||
### 1. `momentum_trading_analysis.ipynb`
|
||||
|
||||
**Comprehensive Momentum Trading Analysis - Chapters 6 & 7**
|
||||
|
||||
This notebook implements and analyzes two key momentum trading strategies:
|
||||
|
||||
#### 🔵 Time Series Momentum (Chapter 7)
|
||||
- **Strategy**: Compares current prices to historical levels (250-day lookback)
|
||||
- **Asset Class**: Treasury futures (TU contracts)
|
||||
- **Logic**: Long when price > price 250 days ago, short otherwise
|
||||
- **Holding Period**: 25 days with gradual position building
|
||||
|
||||
#### 🔴 Cross-Sectional Momentum (Chapter 6)
|
||||
- **Strategy**: Kent Daniel style long-short equity momentum
|
||||
- **Asset Class**: Stock universe (up to 500 stocks)
|
||||
- **Logic**: Long top performers, short bottom performers based on 252-day returns
|
||||
- **Rebalancing**: Monthly with 20 stocks long, 20 stocks short
|
||||
|
||||
#### 📊 Analysis Features
|
||||
|
||||
**Performance Metrics**:
|
||||
- Annual returns, volatility, Sharpe ratios
|
||||
- Maximum drawdown and duration
|
||||
- Win rates and trading frequency
|
||||
- Risk-adjusted performance (Calmar ratio)
|
||||
|
||||
**Statistical Testing**:
|
||||
- T-tests for significance
|
||||
- Bootstrap confidence intervals
|
||||
- Randomized market returns tests
|
||||
- Monte Carlo simulations
|
||||
|
||||
**Visualizations**:
|
||||
- Cumulative return charts
|
||||
- Rolling Sharpe ratio analysis
|
||||
- Drawdown patterns over time
|
||||
- Return distribution histograms
|
||||
- Risk-return scatter plots
|
||||
- Monthly returns heatmaps
|
||||
|
||||
**Risk Analysis**:
|
||||
- Value at Risk (VaR) calculations
|
||||
- Skewness and kurtosis analysis
|
||||
- Downside deviation metrics
|
||||
- Drawdown series visualization
|
||||
|
||||
## Usage
|
||||
|
||||
### Prerequisites
|
||||
```bash
|
||||
pip install numpy pandas matplotlib seaborn scipy jupyter
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
### Running the Notebook
|
||||
```bash
|
||||
cd converted_code/notebooks
|
||||
jupyter notebook momentum_trading_analysis.ipynb
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
### Data Requirements
|
||||
The notebook automatically attempts to load real market data from the converted CSV/JSON files in `../data/`. If real data is unavailable, it generates synthetic data for demonstration purposes.
|
||||
|
||||
**Real Data Used**:
|
||||
- Treasury futures: `futures_20120813.csv`
|
||||
- Stock data: `stocks_20120424.csv`
|
||||
- Earnings data: `earnings.json`
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Insights
|
||||
|
||||
The analysis provides insights into:
|
||||
|
||||
1. **Momentum Persistence**: Whether momentum effects exist in the data
|
||||
2. **Strategy Comparison**: Relative performance of time series vs cross-sectional approaches
|
||||
3. **Statistical Significance**: Whether observed returns are statistically meaningful
|
||||
4. **Risk Characteristics**: Drawdown patterns and risk-adjusted returns
|
||||
5. **Practical Implementation**: Trading frequency and portfolio turnover
|
||||
|
||||
## Academic Context
|
||||
|
||||
The strategies implemented follow the methodologies described in:
|
||||
- **Chapter 6**: Cross-sectional momentum in equity markets
|
||||
- **Chapter 7**: Time series momentum in futures markets
|
||||
|
||||
The analysis includes proper statistical testing to validate the significance of momentum effects, following academic best practices for strategy evaluation.
|
||||
|
||||
## Limitations and Disclaimers
|
||||
|
||||
- Results may use synthetic data if real market data is unavailable
|
||||
- Transaction costs and market impact are not included
|
||||
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
|
||||
- Strategies may be subject to regime changes and capacity constraints
|
||||
|
||||
## Next Steps
|
||||
|
||||
For further research, consider:
|
||||
- Testing across different time periods and market regimes
|
||||
- Including realistic transaction costs
|
||||
- Implementing risk management overlays
|
||||
- Analyzing factor exposures and attribution
|
||||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
Reference in New Issue
Block a user