from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional import pandas as pd from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import VECM class TradingPair: market_data_: pd.DataFrame symbol_a_: str symbol_b_: str price_column_: str training_mu_: Optional[float] training_std_: Optional[float] training_df_: Optional[pd.DataFrame] testing_df_: Optional[pd.DataFrame] vecm_fit_: Optional[VECM] user_data_: Dict[str, Any] def __init__(self, market_data: pd.DataFrame, symbol_a: str, symbol_b: str, price_column: str): self.symbol_a_ = symbol_a self.symbol_b_ = symbol_b self.price_column_ = price_column self.market_data_ = self._transform_dataframe(market_data)[["tstamp"] + self.colnames()] self.training_mu_ = None self.training_std_ = None self.training_df_ = None self.testing_df_ = None self.vecm_fit_ = None self.user_data_ = {} def _transform_dataframe(self, df: pd.DataFrame): # Select only the columns we need df_selected = df[["tstamp", "symbol", self.price_column_]] # Start with unique timestamps result_df: pd.DataFrame = pd.DataFrame(df_selected["tstamp"]).drop_duplicates().reset_index(drop=True) # For each unique symbol, add a corresponding close price column for symbol in df_selected["symbol"].unique(): # Filter rows for this symbol df_symbol = df_selected[df_selected["symbol"] == symbol].reset_index(drop=True) # Create column name like "close-COIN" new_price_column = f"{self.price_column_}_{symbol}" # Create temporary dataframe with timestamp and price temp_df = pd.DataFrame({ "tstamp": df_symbol["tstamp"], new_price_column: df_symbol[self.price_column_] }) # Join with our result dataframe result_df = pd.merge(result_df, temp_df, on="tstamp", how="left") result_df = result_df.reset_index(drop=True) # do not dropna() since irrelevant symbol would affect dataset return result_df def get_datasets(self, training_minutes: int, training_start_index: int = 0, testing_size: Optional[int] = None) -> None: testing_start_index = training_start_index + training_minutes self.training_df_ = self.market_data_.iloc[training_start_index:testing_start_index, :].copy() self.training_df_ = self.training_df_.dropna().reset_index(drop=True) testing_start_index = training_start_index + training_minutes if testing_size is None: self.testing_df_ = self.market_data_.iloc[testing_start_index:, :].copy() else: self.testing_df_ = self.market_data_.iloc[testing_start_index:testing_start_index + testing_size, :].copy() self.testing_df_ = self.testing_df_.dropna().reset_index(drop=True) def colnames(self) -> List[str]: return [f"{self.price_column_}_{self.symbol_a_}", f"{self.price_column_}_{self.symbol_b_}"] def fit_VECM(self): vecm_df = self.training_df_[self.colnames()].reset_index(drop=True) vecm_model = VECM(vecm_df, coint_rank=1) vecm_fit = vecm_model.fit() # URGENT check beta and alpha # Check if the model converged properly if not hasattr(vecm_fit, "beta") or vecm_fit.beta is None: print(f"{self}: VECM model failed to converge properly") self.vecm_fit_ = vecm_fit # print(f"{self}: beta={self.vecm_fit_.beta} alpha={self.vecm_fit_.alpha}" ) # print(f"{self}: {self.vecm_fit_.summary()}") pass def check_cointegration(self): from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import coint_johansen df = self.training_df_[self.colnames()].reset_index(drop=True) result = coint_johansen(df, det_order=0, k_ar_diff=1) # print(f"{self}: lr1={result.lr1[0]} cvt={result.cvt[0, 1]}.") is_cointegrated = result.lr1[0] > result.cvt[0, 1] return is_cointegrated def train_pair(self) -> bool: is_cointegrated = self.check_cointegration() if not is_cointegrated: return False pass # print('*' * 80 + '\n' + f"**************** {self} IS COINTEGRATED ****************\n" + '*' * 80) self.fit_VECM() diseq_series = self.training_df_[self.colnames()] @ self.vecm_fit_.beta self.training_mu_ = diseq_series.mean().iloc[0] self.training_std_ = diseq_series.std().iloc[0] self.training_df_["dis-equilibrium"] = self.training_df_[self.colnames()] @ self.vecm_fit_.beta # Normalize the dis-equilibrium self.training_df_["scaled_dis-equilibrium"] = ( diseq_series - self.training_mu_ ) / self.training_std_ return True def predict(self) -> None: predicted_prices = self.vecm_fit_.predict(steps=len(self.testing_df_)) # Convert prediction to a DataFrame for readability # predicted_df = self.predicted_df_ = pd.merge( self.testing_df_.reset_index(drop=True), pd.DataFrame(predicted_prices, columns=self.colnames()), left_index=True, right_index=True, suffixes=("", "_pred"), ).dropna() self.predicted_df_["disequilibrium"] = self.predicted_df_[self.colnames()] @ self.vecm_fit_.beta self.predicted_df_["scaled_disequilibrium"] = ( abs(self.predicted_df_["disequilibrium"] - self.training_mu_) / self.training_std_ ) # Reset index to ensure proper indexing self.predicted_df_ = self.predicted_df_.reset_index() return self.predicted_df_ def __repr__(self) ->str: return f"{self.symbol_a_} & {self.symbol_b_}"